Election Process, REAL Delegate Count Proves Dr. Paul Still Has Chance
With Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich out of the Republican presidential race, the mainstream media has already declared Mitt Romney the 2012 GOP nominee.
But what about Ron Paul?
For the last four months, Dr. Paul has run an honest, efficient campaign with limited resources but has not won any states.
He may not need to though…
The Republican presidential nominee will be officially elected when the GOP holds their convention in Tampa, Florida from August 27th-August 30th.
At the convention, 2,286 delegates will select the nominee. (the winner must have 1,144 votes or there is a brokered convention)
These delegates are sent from each state HOWEVER, all states DO NOT choose their delegates the same way.
There are three different ways states select delegates:
Winner-Take-All: Whoever wins the state’s primary election gets ALL of their delegates.
Proportional: Delegates are split between the candidates based on the results of the state’s primary election.
Non-Binding: The state’s primary election means absolutely NOTHING, delegates are selected at the state convention.
Therefore, the mainstream media‘s delegate counts are TOTALLY FALSE because they have already awarded Non-Binding, unpledged delegates to Mitt Romney.
The truth is, many non-binding delegates have not even been selected yet. (Most states will hold their GOP convention in early June)
Taking these factors into account, what is the real delegate count so far?
First, the bad news… Mitt Romney has won all 11 Winner-Take-All states thus far, which earned him 410 delegates. (Florida: 50, Arizona: 29, Michigan: 30, Idaho:32, Alabama: 50, Puerto Rico: 23, Maryland: 37, Washington DC: 19, Connecticut: 28, Deleware: 17, New York: 95)
Romney has also earned 282 delegates in the 16 proportional states so far. (New Hampshire: 7, South Carolina: 2, Nevada: 14, Alaska: 8, Georgia: 21, MassachusettsL 38, Ohio: 38, Oklahoma: 13, Tennessee: 16, Vermont: 9, Virginia: 43, Kansas: 7, Hawaii: 9, Mississippi: 12, Wisconsin: 33, Rhode Island: 12)
Therefore, Mitt Romney’s current delegate count is 692.
Rick Santorum has earned 144 delegates in the 16 proportional states so far. (New Hampshire: 2, South Carolina: 0, Nevada: 3, Alaska: 8, Georgia: 3, Massachusetts: 38, Ohio: 21, Oklahoma: 14, Tennessee: 29, Vermont: 4, Virginia: 0, Kansas: 33, Hawaii: 5, Mississippi: 13, Wisconsin: 9, Rhode Island: 0)
Newt Gingrich has earned 118 delegates in the 16 proportional states so far. (New Hampshire: 0, South Carolina: 23, Nevada: 6, Alaska: 2, Georgia: 52, Massachusetts, 0, Ohio: 0, Oklahoma: 13, Tennessee: 10, Vermont: 0, Virginia: 0, Kansas: 0, Hawaii: 0, Mississippi: 12, Wisconsin: 0, Rhode Island: 0)
Dr. Paul has earned 28 delegates in the 16 proportional states so far. (New Hampshire: 3, South Carolina: 0, Nevada: 5, Alaska: 6, Georgia: 0, Massachusetts, 0, Ohio: 0, Oklahoma: 0, Tennessee: 0, Vermont: 4, Virginia: 3, Kansas: 0, Hawaii: 0, Mississippi: 0, Wisconsin: 0, Rhode Island: 4)
Therefore, here is the REAL total of the AWARDED delegates so far:
Mitt Romney: 692, Rick Santorum: 144, Newt Gingrich: 118, Dr. Paul: 28
Now, here’s where it gets interesting:
14 states have held Non-Binding primaries thus far, which represents a total of 457 UNPLEDGED DELEGATES (Iowa: 28, Colorado: 36, Minnesota: 40, Wyoming: 29, Maine: 24, Washington: 43, North Dakota: 28, Illinois: 69, Missouri: 52, Guam: 9, North Mariana Islands: 9, US Virgin Islands: 9, American Samoa: 9, Pennsylvania: 72)
Dr. Paul’s campaign strategy is to target those non-binding delegate spots. Early reports show Paul supporters are dominating the election process for unpledged delegates and will secure a majority of them.
If Dr. Paul were to win ALL of the Non-Binding unpledged delegates from the 16 states that have voted so far (HYPOTHETICALLY), this would be the current delegate count:
Mitt Romney: 692, Dr. Paul: 485, Rick Santorum: 144, Newt Gingrich: 118
Of the remaining states left to vote, 5 will hold Non-Binding primaries which will likely help Dr. Paul’s delegate total (Louisiana: 46, Indiana: 46, West Virginia: 31, Nebraska: 35, Montana: 26)
In other words, there are 641 total Non-Binding Unpledged delegates (AND RON PAUL COULD WIN MOST OF THEM)
Dr. Paul will also likely win more delegates in future proportional states now that the Republican Primary is a two man race (North Carolina: 55, Oregon, 28, Arkansas: 36, Kentucky: 45, Texas: 155, California: 172, and South Dakota: 28)
Romney will probably win the remaining winner-take-all states (New Jersey: 50, Utah 40)
HOWEVER, keep in mind that Mitt Romney has to have 1,144 delegates to win the Republican nomination at the convention.
Admittedly the odds are against Dr. Paul, but he certainly still has a chance to force a brokered convention if he keeps collecting unpledged delegates in non-binding states.
RON PAUL 2012!